The year 2022 has been a turbulent year for the markets. Geopolitical
conflict, rising prices, and the labor market played key roles in the instability.
Which stories brought attention of investors the most?
The infographic from New York Life Investments outlines the
top Google searches related to investing in 2022, and offers a closer look at
some of the trends.
Review on Top Google Searches in 2022:
The table below shows some of the top economic and investing
stories that saw peak search interest in the Unites States each month,
according to Google Trends.
|
Month of Peak Interest |
Search Term |
|
January |
Great Resignation |
|
February |
Russian Stock Market |
|
March |
Oil Price |
|
April |
Housing Bubble |
|
May |
Value Investing |
|
June |
Bitcoin |
|
July |
Recession |
|
August |
Inflation |
|
September |
US Dollar |
|
October |
OPEC |
|
November |
Layoffs |
|
December |
Interest Rate Forecast |
The data used above is based on exact searches in the U.S.
from December 26, 2021 to December 18, 2022.
To get a deeper understanding of the search trends, let’s look at each quarter in more detail. It will help us understand how these top Google searches were related to activity in the economy and investors’ portfolios.
First Quarter 2022
The start of the year was marked by U.S. workers quitting
their jobs in great numbers, and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. For example,
the price of crude oil hit the roof after the war caused uncertainty in supply.
Early March’s peak of $125 per barrel was a 13-year high.
|
Date |
Closing Price of WTI Crude Oil
(USD/Barrel) |
|
January 2, 2022 |
$76 |
|
March 3, 2022 |
$125 |
|
December 29, 2022 |
$80 |
While crude oil lost nearly all its gains by end of the year,
the energy sector in general performed fine. In fact, the S&P 500 Energy
Index gained 57% over the year compared to the S&P 500’s 19% loss.
Second Quarter 2022
The second quarter of 2022 saw unusual growth in house
pricing, renewed interest in value investing, and a bitcoin crash. In
particular, value investing performed much better than growth investing over
the course of the year.
|
Index |
Price Return in 2022 |
|
S&P 500 Value Index |
-7.4% |
|
S&P 500 Growth Index |
-30.1% |
Value stocks have usually performed well during periods of
rising rates, and 2022 was not an exception.
Third Quarter 2022
The third quarter was identified by worries about a
recession and inflation, along with interest in the rise in U.S. dollar. In
fact, the U.S. dollar gained against nearly every major currency.
|
Currency |
USD Appreciation Against
Currency (Dec 31 2020-Sep 30 2022) |
|
Japanese Yen |
40.1% |
|
Chinese Yuan |
9.2% |
|
Euro |
25.1% |
|
Canadian Dollar |
7.2% |
|
British Pound |
22.0% |
|
Australian Dollar |
18.1% |
The increase in interest rates made the U.S. dollar more
attractive to investors, since it meant they would get a higher return on their
fixed income investments.
Fourth Quarter 2022
The end of the year was dominated by OPEC cutting oil
production, high layoffs in the tech sector, and curiosity about the future of
interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s December 2022 economic projections offer
clues about the trajectory of the policy rate.
|
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
Longer Run |
|
Minimum Projection |
4.9% |
3.1% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
|
Median Projection |
5.1% |
4.1% |
3.1% |
2.5% |
|
Maximum Projection |
5.6% |
5.6% |
5.6% |
3.3% |
The Federal Reserve expects interest rates to peak in 2023,
with rates to remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable
future.
The Top Google Searches to Come
After a year of instability and unpredictability across
asset classes, economic uncertainty remains there. An important question to consider
after the analysis on 2022 is, which themes will become investors’ top Google
searches in 2023?
Infographic by: visualcapitalist
